Opinion: New poll shows why Kari Lake is sunk

9.2% and 30.4%.
When the election is over, these are the numbers most likely to drive a stake into the heart of the Kari Lake machine.
Percentage of likely Republican voters who say they plan to cross party lines to vote for Democrat Ruben Gallego: 9.2%.
Percentage of those all-important independent voters who plan to vote to Kari Lake: 30.4%.
In a close race — if, in fact, anyone considers this one close anymore — those numbers are poison.
The latest HighGround poll shows us what a bazillion of the last bazillion and two polls have shown us (those two outliers being polls for the Lake campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee).
As she has all year, Lake trails Gallego.
The latest HighGround poll puts her down by 9 points — 51.7% to 42.3% — and with just two weeks until Election Day, the window is such that I’m not sure a cardboard cutout could shimmy through it.
Not when Gallego is drawing double the support from those all-important independents who decide races in Arizona.
And not when Republicans are defecting at double the rate as Democrats.
Donald Trump, meanwhile, has gone from 2.2 points down in late September to take a six-tenths-of-a-point lead over Kamala Harris, 46.8% to 46.2%. That’s within the margin of error, but at least he’s going in the right direction.
Trump fares better than Lake with Republicans and with independents.
There’s a message here for the Republicans who hope to someday recapture all the statewide offices they used to own.
Don’t nominate a Donald Trump mini-me.
“Trump is a unicorn,” HighGround pollster Paul Bentz told me. “Everyone else is just a horse wearing a hat.
“We saw the same thing with his MAGA acolytes in 2022. Trump has some sort of crossover appeal that does not translate to his followers. Not only does he do better among the GOP base, but he is able to capture more of the independent vote than Lake.”
The Senate race likely will tighten, as races often do in the final days, but Lake would have to turbo-charge her sneakers to catch Gallego.
Bentz says it’s not happening.
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“At this same time two years ago, we had (Mark) Kelly only up by 3 points over (Blake) Masters, and he ended up winning that race by 125,000 votes,” Bentz said.
“Gallego’s polling margin is nearly three times as high. I don’t see her making up the difference with negative Gallego attacks alone. She needs to give people a reason to vote FOR her, not simply AGAINST her opponent.”
This is, of course, great advice — advice, by the way, that Kamala Harris ought to take to heart if she wants to win Arizona. If a voter is undecided at this point, I’m not sure that just saying you aren’t Donald Trump is going to seal the deal with them.
As for Lake, it’s over for her in 2024 but, as they say, there’s always a bright side.
Arizona’s next race for governor is just 741 days away.
Reach Roberts at [email protected]. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) at @LaurieRobertsaz and on Threads at @LaurieRobertsaz.
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